Weibull predictions & asset profiling

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In 1999 Peter and four colleagues at Yorkshire Water introduced the use of Weibull formulae into capital maintenance planning and developed an industry leading approach for the expert elicitation of information that supports decision making processes where data is limited.

 

The purpose was to forecast asset death and the need for replacement assets for inclusion in the capital maintenance plan to support the company’s five year Strategic Business Plan.

 

Today, the Weibull methodology is a fundamental part of most UK water companies capital asset replacement programmes and today Peter and his associates are still developing improvements to the process to improve the accuracy of forecasting and hence the targeting of future investment needs.
Text Box: Looking to apply Weibull formulae and asset profiling in your asset predictions? We can: Ensure you focus on gathering effective information to base decisions Facilitate workshops and expert panels to elicit information Apply the methodology for different levels in the asset hierarchy Standardise data collection processes and definitions for data inputs Model risk based plans Ensure consistency in application Advise on improvements to current methodology Focus your effort on those critical assets that matter Develop for you a process to enable you to verify and validate your Weibull workings with real data (this is often a regulatory requirement) Asset Profiling Using real asset data to create failure curves eg bathtub curves, whole life curves

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Text Box: Problem definition To develop an asset plan to ensure no interruption to service delivered To ensure you have the right asset, procured and operated at the right value, in the right place, at the right time, to deliver the right level of service demanded by customer and getting it right first time and every time Poor quality or no data to base decisions Having thousands of assets to include in the programme Inconsistency of human decisions and their inability to compute sufficient data in the time allowed Weibull can give a forecast of asset death or survival give consistent decisions be extrapolated into the future assess the probability of failure for use in risk based decision systems

Weibull application

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You can e-mail us at:                  enquiries@risk-matters.co.uk

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